🕵️ Due Diligence Case Study: $45,000 Overpayment Avoided on Affiliate Blog
Asset Profile: The High-Margin Affiliate Blog
| Key Metric | Listing Information (Seller Claim) |
| Niche | Personal Care Products (High-Ticket) |
| Monetization | Affiliate Program (90% of Revenue) |
| Asking Price | $140,000 |
| Claimed Monthly SDE | $3,500 |
| Implied Multiple | 40x (3.3x Annual) |
🔍 Discovery Phase: Financial Discrepancy
The seller provided affiliate dashboard screenshots showing an average income of $3,800 USD/month over the last 12 months. However, our client (the Buyer), using the DD Request Templates from our kit, demanded read-only access to:
- Google Analytics (GA): 24 months of traffic history.
- Affiliate Dashboard: Raw payout transaction data.
- Bank Statements and P&L: 12-month history.
The Challenge: The seller’s P&L sheet showed minimal operating expenses (hosting, plugins) of only $150/month. Upon reviewing the financials, a critical discrepancy was found in the Quality of Earnings (QoE) analysis.
🛑 The Critical Red Flag: Hidden Operating Expenses (OpEx)
The QoE audit, the central focus of our Kit, revealed the key financial misrepresentation in the Operating Expenses (OpEx):
- Hidden Content Expense: The seller had hired a freelancer to write 8 articles per month at a total cost of $1,000 USD per month.
- Seller’s Rationale: The seller claimed this expense was «non-recurring» because they paid it personally outside the business account, but admitted that the site’s organic growth was directly dependent on this continuous monthly content production.
- P&L Impact: This $1,000 USD/month expenditure was essential to maintaining the asset and therefore had to be classified as a recurring OpEx for the new owner.
📉 Impact on Valuation (Net Profit Adjustment)
The asset’s true Seller’s Discretionary Earnings (SDE) had to be adjusted significantly:
| Concept | Seller’s Claim | Due Diligence Adjustment | Actual SDE (Adjusted) |
| Average Gross Revenue | $3,800 | $0 | $3,800 |
| Recurring OpEx (Reported) | -$150 | $0 | -$150 |
| Recurring OpEx (Hidden) | $0 | -$1,000 | -$1,000 |
| Monthly SDE | $3,650 | N/A | $2,650 |
- Initial Valuation (40x): $\$3,500 \times 40 = \mathbf{\$140,000}$
- Adjusted Valuation (40x): $\$2,650 \times 40 = \mathbf{\$106,000}$
🔑 Result: Negotiating Leverage and Capital Protection
Armed with the irrefutable data from the QoE audit, the buyer had a rock-solid basis for renegotiation.
- Negotiation Outcome: The buyer demonstrated the asset’s fair value was $106,000. Following negotiation, the final purchase price was settled at $107,500 USD.
- Capital Protected: The buyer successfully avoided a $32,500 USD overpayment ($140,000 – $107,500).
This Case Study proves that Due Diligence is not a cost—it is self-amortizing capital protection realized before the acquisition is even finalized.
Lessons Learned for the Investor:
- All Essential OpEx Counts: If an expense is required to maintain current traffic or revenue, it must be included in the SDE calculation, regardless of who currently pays for it.
- Go to the Raw Source: Never accept the seller’s P&L without verifying expenses against raw bank statements or invoices.
- DD is Leverage: The cost of performing Due Diligence will always be less than the financial risk of overpayment.
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